As of October 27, 2026 - nearly six weeks after the elections in Sweden - the deadlock persists, and outgoing Prime Minister Kristersson continues to serve in a caretaker government. Much like the situation in Israel, this is characterized by excessive optimism, uncertainty, protracted delays, and extreme scenarios.

Original Deot analysis (September 18, 2026) outlined a narrow victory for the center-left bloc (176 seats to 173), the resignation of Kristersson, and a very high probability (~89%) of a government led by Magdalena Andersson—most likely a minority government comprising the Social Democrats (S) and the Green Party (MP), with separate support or abstention arrangements involving the Centre Party (C) and the Left Party (V). The primary risk identified was the "red lines" (vetoes) existing between the Centre Party (C) and the Left Party (V), as well as the difficulty of passing a budget following the government's inauguration.

In practice, these "veto players" have indeed thwarted every attempt to form a coalition, establish a government, and replace the outgoing Prime Minister, who remains in office as the head of a caretaker government (Very much like in the Israeli election case).

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Timeline and what has happened since the results were announced?

  1. September 13, 2026 – General election for the Riksdag (parliamentary election).
  2. September 17, 2026 – Final vote count completed. Ulf Kristersson submits his resignation as Prime Minister; his administration becomes a caretaker government.
  3. September 18, 2026 – Speaker of the Riksdag Andreas Norlén grants Magdalena Andersson (leader of the Social Democrats) the initial mandate (*sonderingsuppdrag*) to explore the possibility of forming a government.
  4. September 28, 2026 – The new Riksdag convenes (*upprop*). Andreas Norlén is re-elected as Speaker of the Riksdag. Andersson returns the mandate (forming a government is not feasible under the current circumstances, due in part to the Left Party’s support for Norlén).
  5. September 30, 2026 – The Speaker begins a new round of consultations with party leaders.
  6. October 2, 2026 – Norlén grants Andersson a second mandate to explore the formation of a government (original reporting deadline: October 12; later extended).
  7. October 11, 2026 – Andersson’s reporting deadline is extended to October 13.
  8. October 13, 2026 – Andersson informs the Speaker that the conditions for forming a government do not exist (with the sole theoretical possibility being a government consisting only of the Social Democrats, S). Norlén announces a parliamentary vote.
  9. October 15, 2026 – A vote is held in the Riksdag on the appointment of Magdalena Andersson as Prime Minister (a government consisting solely of the Social Democrats). Result: 99 in favor, 248 against (rejected).
  10. October 19, 2026 – Norlén grants a mandate (*sonderingsuppdrag*) to Elisabeth Thand Ringqvist (leader of the Centre Party, C) to explore the possibility of a centrist government (S+MP+C+KD+L, led by Andersson; with a reporting deadline of October 26). October 26, 2026 – Thand Ringquist reports a failure to the Speaker: there is insufficient support for the Center-led government that was explored (the Center Party was willing to facilitate only a Social Democratic-led government, but the Left Party and the Green Party blocked this). The mandate is returned.
  11. October 27-28, 2026 (Current Status) – The Speaker of the Parliament is holding consultations with party leaders regarding the next steps. No new mandate or date for another vote has been announced yet. The caretaker government, led by Kristersson (the outgoing Prime Minister), remains in office.

A few remarks regarding the method of forming a government in Sweden

  • Under the Swedish constitution, up to four candidates for Prime Minister may be proposed. If all are rejected, new elections are held.
  • To date, only one formal vote has taken place (on October 15).
  • The process is based on "negative parliamentarism": a candidate fails only if at least 175 members of parliament vote against them (a hint - perhaps something worth adopting in Israel, too?)

Model's forecast?

The high probability previously assigned to Andersson has dropped significantly. Prediction markets (such as Polymarket) now place the odds at approximately 74% for Andersson and 20% for Kristersson. Doubts are being voiced within the Social Democratic Party (S) itself, and some predict a potential return for Kristersson should the deadlock persist. The "red lines" identified in the original column have fully materialized: the Centre Party (C) refuses to support a government dependent on the Left Party (V) - or one that includes V ministers - while the Left Party insists on significant influence or cabinet portfolios. The Centre Party’s attempts have failed; and although Sweden’s system of "negative parliamentarism" (where a candidate is rejected only if 175 or more MPs vote against them) theoretically allows for a minority government, no viable formula has yet emerged.

While the original forecast and analytical model correctly anticipated the unfolding process, they were overly optimistic regarding the ease of forming a government. The conflict between the Centre Party and the Left Party has proven to be a genuine obstacle. The situation has now entered a phase of heightened uncertainty, carrying an increased risk of prolonged delays or the emergence of alternative scenarios. The interim government continues, and the ball is in the Speaker of the Parliament’s court.

Does a similar fate await us in Israel? Here, too, there is no clear coalition majority, a multitude of actors with mutual veto power, an inability to form a "blocking bloc" against a minority government as a straightforward solution, and uncertainty compounded by various extreme scenarios - such as repeat elections, minority governments lacking broad consensus, a unity government led by Netanyahu, and more.

What lies ahead in Sweden?

  1. Another vote for Anderson (Kristerson pushing for it).
  2. Mandate for Kristerson or another party.
  3. Continued stagnation.
  4. If four candidates are rejected - new elections (so far only one formal vote has been registered).
  5. At the moment, until further notice - the outgoing Prime Minister continues to serve in a transitional government (just like in Israel).

Footnotes and sources

  1. Deot Institute. (2026, September 18). Sweden 2026 election decided: Government hinges oncompromise
  2. Wikipedia. (2026). 2026 Swedish government formation. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Swedish_government_formation
  3. Sveriges riksdag. (2026, October 26). The Speaker has received a report from Elisabeth Thand Ringqvist (Cen). https://www.riksdagen.se/en/news/
  4. The Irish Times. (2026, October 26). Sweden’s Centre Party leader hands task of forming government back to parliament speaker. https://www.irishtimes.com/world/europe/2026/10/26/swedens-centre-party-leader-hands-task-of-forming-government-back-to-parliament-speaker/
  5. Göteborgs-Posten / TT. (2026, October 26). Ingen regering i sikte – detta har hänt sedan valet. https://www.gp.se/nyheter/sverige/ingen-regering-i-sikte-detta-har-hant-sedan-valet.dcb5129b-a82d-55df-b443-df766337789c
  6. Sweden Herald / TT. (2026, October 26). Sweden Still Has No Government Six Weeks After Election as Talks Continue. https://swedenherald.com/article/sweden-still-has-no-government-six-weeks-after-election-as-talks-continue
  7. Sweden Herald / TT. (2026, October 27). Kristersson says Speaker must now lead Sweden’s government formation talks. https://swedenherald.com/article/kristersson-says-speaker-must-now-lead-swedens-government-formation-talks
  8. Nordics Today. (2026, October 26). Kristersson Odds Rise After Centre Bid Fails. https://nordicstoday.com/article/kristersson-odds-rise-centre-government-fails
  9. Daily Finland / Xinhua. (2026, October 27). Sweden's gov't formation remains deadlocked as centrist coalition bid fails. https://www.dailyfinland.fi/europe/51999/Swedens-govt-formation-remains-deadlocked-as-centrist-coalition-bid-fails
  10. Wikipedia. (2026). 2026 Swedish general election. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Swedish_general_election